Can voters predict changes in their own attitudes?

Although scholars have established that voters have unstable preferences (e .g., Converse, 1964; Zaller, 1992) and that they are not accurate when reca lling past preferences (e.g., Markus, 1986; Niemi, Katz & Newman, 1980; Smi th, 1984), existing research has not systematically explored whether voters can accurately predict the changing nature of their own opinions. The ques tion of whether people recognize die instability of their political prefere nces was explored in a random sample of Pennsylvania registered voters who were surveyed in August and October 1996, during the presidential election campaign. The first survey elicited respondents' positions on two political issues (welfare reform and the environment) and on the two major candidate s, and also asked them to estimate the likelihood that each of these positi ons would change during the next 2 months. The second survey elicited posit ions at that time and also asked voters to recall their prior positions. Me asured both by expectations and recall, respondents tended to underestimate the degree to which their own positions would change or had changed over t ime. This research has implications for the use of public opinion polling a nd more broadly for the practice of democratic politics.