A computer simulation model of mass media interventions directed at tobacco use

Objectives. The goal of this study was to develop a simulation model to exa mine the effects of tobacco control mass media interventions on smoking rat es and smoking-attributable deaths. Methods. The model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related death s. Based on empirical and theoretical research, the effects of media interv entions, varying in magnitude and duration, directed at all smokers and dir ected specifically at youth under age 18 are modeled. Results. The model predicts that sustained media interventions of sufficien t magnitude and duration directed at all smokers have the potential to subs tantially reduce the number of smokers and premature deaths, with the effec ts growing over time. For the same expenditures, youth interventions would appear to have smaller and more delayed effects. Conclusions. Media interventions, particularly those targeted at the genera l population and of sufficient scale and duration, have the ability to subs tantially reduce smoking rates and save lives, but their effects are likely to depend on how they are implemented. (C) 2001 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.