A linked-modeling framework to estimate maize production risk associated with ENSO-related climate variability in Argentina

A risk assessment framework is presented to characterize the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO)-r elated climate variability. The framework was applied to current maize prod uction systems in two locations (Pergamino and Pilar) in the Pampas of cent ral-eastern Argentina. Climatic, agronomic, and economic models were linked to produce probability distributions of farm-level yields and net returns by ENSO phase. Generally, an enhanced chance of higher (lower) simulated ma ize yields existed during warm (cold) ENSO events. However, regional differ ences existed: the effect of warm events on yields was more marked in Pilar , but Pergamino showed a proportionally stronger response to cold events. T he modeling framework allowed the exploration of outcomes of high and low s cenarios of soil water availability at planting time and ENSO phase, High i nitial soil water availability in Pilar offset increased yield risks from d ry conditions associated with cold ENSO events. Fluctuations of output pric es were shown to have considerable influence on the risk associated with EN SO-related climate variability. Despite these general results, there was co nsiderable overlap in yields and net returns for the various ENSO phases, T his overlap has significant implications for the adoption of ENSO forecasts in agriculture. The risk assessment framework developed here is a necessar y precursor to risk management studies that prescribe or describe possible responses to expected climate scenarios. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.