A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control

Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic i noculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit m alaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of thei r feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the para site sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the produc t of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during thei r lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The E IRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic site s from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field m easurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and hu man reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1 .13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field, For the se four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectious ness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the pot ential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensit y to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission contro l measures and for public health education.