Did Yeltsin buy elections? The Russian political business cycle, 1993-1999

This article seeks to determine whether a political business cycle existed during Yeltsin's tenure in the Second Russian Republic. While Yeltsin certa inly had the power and desire to increase his electoral chances, the lack o f state resources and doubts about their appeal to voters presents an incon clusive picture concerning the existence of a political business cycle duri ng this period. Statistical analysis, however, demonstrates that the level of real wage arrears decreased during electoral periods. Other measures, su ch as federal budget spending or the average monthly pension, only show wea k indications of electoral period manipulation. Finally, the usefulness of buying votes in the Russian case, however, is questioned, considering Yelts in's failures in various Duma elections. (C) 2001 The Regents of the Univer sity of California. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.