Estimates of direct and indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate
aerosols from an integrated global aerosol and climate modeling system are
presented. A detailed global tropospheric chemistry and aerosol model that
predicts concentrations of oxidants as well as aerosols and aerosol precur
sors, is coupled to a general circulation model that predicts both cloud wa
ter mass and cloud droplet number. Both number and mass of several external
ly mixed aerosol size modes are predicted, with internal mixing assumed for
the different aerosol components within each mode. Predicted aerosol speci
es include sulfate, organic and black carbon, soil dust, and sea salt. The
models use physically based treatments of aerosol radiative properties (inc
luding dependence on relative humidity) and aerosol activation as cloud con
densation nuclei. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfa
te aerosol are performed for a global domain. The global and annual mean di
rect and indirect radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate are estima
ted to be -0.3 to -0.5 and -1.5 to -3.0 W m(2), respectively. The radiative
forcing is sensitive to the model's horizontal resolution, the use of pred
icted versus analyzed relative humidity, the prediction versus diagnosis of
aerosol number and droplet number, and the parameterization of droplet col
lision/coalescence. About half of the indirect radiative forcing is due to
changes in droplet radius and half to increased cloud liquid water.