Carbon emissions from manufacturing energy use in 13 IEA countries: long-term trends through 1995

This paper analyses the evolution of carbon emissions from the manufacturin g sectors of 13 IEA countries, based on national data at the 2 or 3 sector ISIC level of disaggregation. We carry out an Adaptive-Weighting-Divisia de composition of changes into factors representing sub-sectoral branch energy intensities, output mix or structure, final fuel mix, and utility fuel mix . We also carry out a detailed comparison of emissions by country and sub-s ector for 1994. We find that by the mid-1990s, emissions from manufacturing in most countries were close to their 1973 levels. The main reasons were l ower branch energy intensities and in some countries changes in utility fue l mix. Changes in the mix of output had small downward effects in a few lar ge countries (Japan and the United States), while these shifts increased em issions in others (Australia, Norway, Netherlands). Fuel mix changes lowere d emissions slightly, principally through moves away from coal and oil towa rds gas. The comparison of countries shows that after overall output, energ y intensities explain most of the differences in per capita emissions from manufacturing Fuel mix and utility fuel mix play an important role for some countries with very CO2 - free power sectors (Sweden, Norway, France) or C O2 intensive power sectors (Australia). Some of the differences in energy i ntensities, however, arise because of hidden sub-sectoral mix effects that cannot be resolved at the 3-digit ISIC level of disaggregation. Emissions h ave been rising since 1990, largely because energy intensities are not fall ing as fast as they did before 1990. What this means for the Kyoto Accord a nd other concerns related to global carbon emissions remains to be seen. (C ) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.