Identifying rice fields at risk from damage by the greater flamingo

1. Since the early 1980s, greater flamingos Phoenicopterus ruber roseus hav e been reported to cause damage to the rice fields of the Camargue, south-e astern France. 2. We tested whether some rice fields had landscape features that were more attractive to flamingos than others, using data from the period 1993-97 an d from 1978 different paddies. Discriminant function analysis (DFA), logist ic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to identi fy the environmental variables best explaining flamingo incursions. 3. The most accurate models (LR) gave 75% prediction success and used as pr edictors the surface area of rice fields, the presence of contiguous damage d fields, the presence of wooded margins and the distance to natural marshe s. 4. Our study suggests that it is possible to identify accurately fields at risk from damage in order to concentrate scaring methods. We also suggest t hat planting hedges should be promoted, and wood cutting discouraged, in hi gh-risk areas. Following our study a programme of planting of hedges by the Natural Regional Park of the Camargue started at the beginning of 2000. 5. Our work reveals how presence-absence modelling can have clear applicati ons in managing important species that sometimes cause negative impacts loc ally.