Partisan business cycles under variable election dates

This paper develops a model where rational economic agents face uncertainty regarding the timing of elections and which party will emerge victorious s hould an election occur. This electoral uncertainty affects the macroeconom y, where the size and direction of the impacts are dependent on the party, in power in the current and previous period, time elapsed since the last el ection, and party popularity. Leftist governments are expected to sustain h igher output levels throughout their electoral term compared to right-wing governments, and the partisan differences will continue to increase until t he next election.