Seasonal forecasting for climate hazards: Prospects and responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatic hazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evalu ation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, commun ication channels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term predic tion, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of in formation.