Probability density of the mass of the standard model Higgs boson - art. no. 071301

The CERN LEP Collaborations have reported a small excess of events in their combined Higgs boson analysis at center of mass energies roots less than o r similar to 208 GeV. In this Rapid Communication, I present the result of a calculation of the probability distribution function of the Higgs boson m ass which can be rigorously obtained if the validity of the standard model is assumed. It arises from the combination of the most recent set of precis ion electroweak data and the current results of the Higgs boson searches at LEP 2.