STABILIZATION OF THE GREENHOUSE IMPACT CAUSED BY ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FROM NORDIC COUNTRIES

The possibility of decreasing the Nordic countries' contribution to gl obal warming in the future is examined. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide ( CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are considered. Global average radiative forcing is used as a measure of the greenhou se impact caused by the emissions. Past emissions are included in the study because they have impact far into the future. The calculation me thod utilized in this study can be applied to any other country. Two h ypothetical future emission development cases are presented, and the r adiative forcing caused by them is calculated. In the higher emission (case A) CO2 emissions remain above current level, while N2O and CH4 e missions decrease. In the lower emission (case B) the emissions decrea se to about one-tenth of the current emissions by the year 2100. Only if very strict emission reductions (case B) take place will the greenh ouse impact of the Nordic countries return to current levels during ne xt century. Likewise, the per capita radiative forcing of Nordic count ries will remain above global average unless the emissions decrease dr astically (case B) and the current population levels are used in per c apita calculation.