Relying on informal care in the new century? Informal care for elderly people in England to 2031

The research reported here is concerned with the future of informal care ov er the next thirty years and the effect of changes in informal care on dema nd for formal services. The research draws on a PSSRU computer simulation m odel which has produced projections to 2031 for long-term care for England. The latest Government Actuary's Department (GAD) 1996-based marital status projections are used here. Those projections yield unexpected results in t hat they indicate that more elderly people are likely to receive informal c are than previously projected. The underlying reason is that the GAD figure s project a fall in the number of widows and rise in the number of elderly women with partners. What this implies is that 'spouse carers' are likely t o become increasingly important. This raises issues about the need for supp ort by carers since spouse carers tend to be themselves elderly and are oft en in poor health. The article explores a number of 'scenarios' around info rmal care, including scenarios in which the supply of informal care is seve rely restricted and a scenario in which more support is given to carers by developing 'carer-blind' services. This last scenario has had particular re levance for the Royal Commission on Long Term Care.