A methodology is presented for qualitative modeling and simulation of the t
emporal behavior of individual variables and the composite process. The tem
poral behavior of a variable in a rt windowed time scale is captured catego
rically using principal-component analysis, while the process is modeled as
a causal diagraph with intel acting and recycle nodes. Rigorous, rather th
an nd hoc, reasoning rules can be devised for the causal diagraph using a l
earning mechanism. Quantitative information can also be incorporated into t
he method with the introduction of fuzzy c-means clustering without comprom
ising the cognitive level of information embedded in the nodes and the digr
aph.