Execution and deterrence: a quasi-controlled group experiment

Using portfolio analysis in a type of controlled group experiment, this stu dy develops an empirical model of homicide changes in Texas over a period o f a 'normal' number of executions. The empirically derived model then estim ates the changes in the number of homicides in Texas (1) over a period of n ear zero executions and; (2) over an immediate subsequent period of double the 'normal' number of executions. The actual changes in Texas homicides ov er the first period is less than estimated by the model and greater (or no different) than estimated by the model in the second period. Because change s in the number of homicides in Texas and throughout the United States were negative over both periods, these empirical results are consistent with th e deterrence hypothesis. That is, there were a greater than predicted numbe r of homicides in the first period and fewer than predicted number in the s econd period.