An original method for predicting the performance of upcoming stratospheric
communication systems is presented. The prediction is based on a physical-
statistical model of the built-up channel, used in combination with existin
g models of the tropospheric mechanisms. The physical nature of the approac
h allows the statistics of fade and BER to be obtained as a function of any
input parameter, such as the size of the target area, the platform height
or the area characteristics. Simulations provide, for example, values of BE
R achieved over a certain percentage of area during a given percentage of t
ime, as a function of the ground range right below the platform. Various sy
stem procedures. such as error correction and power control, are also inves
tigated.