Objectives: A rapid evolution has occurred in state policy and industry pra
ctices relative to assisted living and expanded use of residential care fac
ilities for people with physical and cognitive frailty, yet relatively litt
le is known about the interrelationship between this housing supply and nur
sing-home case mix. Methods: The association between residential care suppl
y and the proportion of cognitively and physically impaired nursing facilit
y residents was examined in more than 1,500 facilities in five states. Resu
lts: The proportion of nursing-home cases with only physical and cognitive
impairment likely to be affected by emerging long-term care policy appears
to be well under 10%. This effect is more persistent among admissions than
continuing cases. Discussion: The findings raise caution about the optimist
ic assumptions of the interplay between residential care/assisted living po
licy and nursing-home use.