When does aerial bombing work? Quantitative empirical tests, 1917-1999

Coercion through air power has been and continues to be an important tool o f foreign policy. Multivariate probit analysis is used to test three hypoth eses on all instances of air power coercion from 1917 to 1999: (1) air powe r coercion attempts are more likely to work if they exploit military rather than civilian vulnerabilities, (2) the regime type of the target affects t he chances of success, and (3) success is less likely if the attacker deman ds that the target change its leadership. Results show that coercion is mor e likely to work if the target's military vulnerability is higher, but high er levels of civilian vulnerability have no effect on the chances of coerci on success; that target regime type has no effect; and that success is less likely when the attacker demands the target change its leadership.