Arms export controls and proliferation

Given that there are a relatively small number of suppliers of major weapon s systems, control of arms exports is possible, and there are a variety of regulatory regimes striving to achieve this. Controls can stabilize regiona l arms races and reduce tensions, However, when buyers can develop the capa bility to produce conventional or unconventional weapons, arms export contr ols can increase the incentive for proliferation. The authors discuss a gen eral framework for analyzing the arms trade and examine the dynamic decisio n problem faced by a country deciding whether to make an irreversible inves tment in arms production capability under conditions of uncertainty.