PARTY CHANGE AND PARTY MEMBERSHIP DECLINE - AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

What is the impact of declining party membership size on party organiz ations? Since existing theory is constructed with the expansion of par ty membership in mind, one might infer that the relationships observed during periods of growth can simply be reversed in periods of decline ; i.e. declining party membership size will lead to declining complexi ty and decentralization of power. However, there is no a priori reason for us to expect this relationship to be true. The paper present a dy namic theory that explains why complexity and centralization of power remain unchanged despite declining membership. Using time-series data from the Party Change Project and the Party Organizations Project, the author provides systematic tests of the impact of declining party mem bership size. The empirical findings suggest that the impacts of decli ning party membership size may affect complexity and centralization of power for some but not all parties.