The social predictors of adolescent alcohol misuse: A test of the social development model

Objective: This study was conducted to investigate the ability of the socia l development model (SDM) to predict alcohol misuse at age 16 and to invest igate the ability of the SDM to mediate the effects of alcohol use at age 1 4 on alcohol misuse at age 16. Method: The sample of 807 (411 males) is from the longitudinal panel of the Seattle Social Development Project which, in 1985, surveyed all consenting fifth-grade students from 18 elementary schools serving high-crime neighbo rhoods in Seattle, Washington. Alcohol use was measured at age 14, predicto rs of alcohol misuse were measured at age 15 and alcohol misuse was measure d at age 16. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the fit of th e model to the data. Results: All factor loadings were highly significant and the measurement mo del achieved a good fit with the data (Comparative Fit Index [CFI] = 0.93). A sec end-order structural model fit the data well (CFI = 0.91) and also e xplained 45% of the variance in alcohol misuse at age 16. The SDM partially and significantly mediated the direct effect of age-14 alcohol use on age- 16 alcohol misuse. Conclusions: The risk and protective processes specified by the SDM serve a s potential targets for the prevention or reduction of adolescent alcohol m isuse.