Memory complaints as a precursor of memory impairment in older people: a longitudinal analysis over 7-8 years

Background. There is considerable dispute about the validity of memory comp laints. While some studies fmd that complaints are an early indicator of de mentia or cognitive decline, there are also many studies showing that compl aints are more closely associated with negative affect (depression, anxiety and neuroticism). The present paper used three-wave longitudinal data to t est three hypotheses: (1) that memory complaints reflect an evaluation of p resent and past memory performance; (2) that memory complaints predict futu re memory performance; and (3) that memory complaints predict current and f uture negative affect. Methods. A longitudinal study was carried out with a community sample of pe ople aged 70 and over. Participants were assessed for memory complaints, me mory performance and negative affect at three waves separated by 3.6 years and 4.0 years. There were 331 persons with data on all relevant variables. The data were analysed using structural equation modelling. Results. Significant paths in the structural model were found from memory p erformance to future memory complaints, as well as from memory complaints t o future memory performance, supporting hypotheses 1 and 2. Memory complain ts were associated with current negative affect, but did not predict future negative affect. Conclusions. Memory complaints do reflect perceptions of past memory perfor mance and are also an early manifestation of memory impairment. However, cu rrent negative affect (anxiety and depression symptoms) shows the greatest association with memory complaints.