Method for spatially explicit calculations of potential biomass yields andassessment of laud availability for biomass energy production in Northeastern Brazil

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has suggested that lar ge-scale use of carbon-neutral or low-carbon biomass-derived energy will be essential in order to limit carbon emissions from the world's energy secto r in the future. The IPCC envisions as much as 400 million ha being devoted to biomass energy plantations by 2050. To realize production of biomass en ergy at such levels - in a manner that would be both biogeophysically susta inable and socially beneficial - will require planning and policy developme nt at sub-national levels, taking into account biogeophysical, social, cult ural, economic, institutional, and other factors. This paper presents a met hod for spatially explicit calculations for estimating potential biomass yi elds over relatively large geographic regions. The calculations use geo-ref erenced data inputs that include rainfall, insolation, temperature, soil qu ality, and soil depth. The methodology is applied to the Northeast region o f Brazil, which accounts for 10% of the area of South America. Northeast Br azil is an interesting site for illustrative purposes in part because it is biologically, geologically, and socio-economically diverse and in part bec ause the main electric utility serving the region is exploring the developm ent of biomass-based electricity generation to meet future increases in ele ctricity demand. Results from a spatially explicit, biogeophysical model li ke that presented here could be combined with other spatially explicit info rmation such as road layouts, existing land uses, population densities and growth rates, distributions of endangered species, archeologically signific ant areas, etc. to inform planning and policy development related to biomas s energy at a regional or national level. One illustration of such an analy sis is included here. For on-the-ground implementation of biomass productio n systems, finer-resolution analysis and intimate local participation is es sential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.