European ionospheric forecast and mapping

A new technique is developed for forecasting and instantaneous mapping of t he ionospheric parameters over Europe, based on analytical presentation of the mapped quantities. The diurnal and seasonal variations of the ionospher ic foF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters are represented by a modified version of t he regional model ISIRM adjusted to the past measured data. An autoregressi ve extrapolation of the data from the past month enables the 15-day-ahead f orecast of the quiet ionospheric distribution to be performed. In addition, the short-term variations due to geomagnetic activity are defined as a pla ne surface superimposed on the quiet distribution. This correction is obtai ned by two plane characteristics as functions of the geomagnetic three-hour Kp index. In this way the 24-hour forecast can be obtain during quiet as w ell as disturbed ionospheric conditions. The corresponding EIFM software pr ovides a variety of options to perform the short-term forecast depending on availability of the measured ionospheric data and predicted Kp values. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.