THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FISHERIES SECTOR I N NORTHWESTERN RUSSIA - A POLITICAL AND BUSINESS CHALLENGE FOR NORWAY

The fisheries sector of Northwestern Russia is currently undergoing pr ofound changes. Its further development is hard to predict, but whiche ver direction it takes, various political and business actors in Norwa y will be highly affected. The article depicts four different future s cenarios, ranging from the total collapse of Northwestern Russian fish ing industry to its successful renewal, and discusses their respective influence on various interest groups in Norway. It is argued that the primary task for Norwegian authorities should be to work to prevent t he realisation of the <<worst>> case,, scenario, which would imply a p otential degeneration of the established management regime of the Bare nts Sea fisheries, as well as political and social instabilty in North western Russia. As for the three other scenarios, it is a main point o f the article that the objectives of all Norwegian actors cannot be fu lfilled simultaneously. These are partly diverging, and a further prio ritising is called for.