Power transformers are some of the most expensive components of electrical
power plant. The failure of a transformer is a matter of significant concer
n for electrical utilities, not only for the consequent severe economic los
ses but also because the utility response to a customer during the outage c
ondition is one of the major factors in determining the overall customer at
titude towards the utility. Therefore. it is essential to predict the therm
al behaviour of a transformer juring load cycling and in particular in the
presence of overload conditions. The authors propose a novel technique to p
redict the winding hottest spot temperature of a power transformer in the p
resence of overload conditions, as an alternative methodology to the radial
basis function network (RBFN) based technique presented in a precious pape
r. The method proposed is based on a modified local memory-based algorithm
which, working on the load current, the top oil temperature rise over ambie
nt temperature and caking into account other meteorological parameters, per
mits the recognition of the hot spot temperature pattern. In particular som
e corrective actions for the classical local methods M;ill be evidenced to
customise it for real-time applications. Data obtained from e experimental
tests allow the local learning algorithm to be tested to evaluate the perfo
rmance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy.