Analysis and modeling of a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea

The storm formed over the warm waters between Sicily and Libya in a region of weak flow ahead of a cold, upper-level trough. During its 5-day lifetime it moved erratically before dissipating off the Turkish coast. As the stor m developed, it diminished in size. assuming a hurricane-like appearance in satellite imagery. Ships near the vortex center reported near-hurricane fo rce winds. An attempt to simulate the storm development with a state-of-the-art mesosc ale model met with mixed success. The most serious errors occurred after th e initial deepening when the predicted track departed substantially from th e observed and the contraction of the storm to mesoscale dimension was miss ed. A number of forward and adjoint sensitivity experiments were conducted to identify factors influencing the development and to explore ways of impr oving the prediction. The most realistic prediction was achieved by implant ing a vortex, in the manner commonly done in tropical cyclone prediction, a t an early stage in the storm's history and by using, in addition, adjoint sensitivity to further modify the initial conditions.