THE USE OF A MASS-ACTION MODEL TO VALIDATE THE OUTPUT FROM A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION-MODEL OF BOVINE VIRAL DIARRHEA VIRUS SPREAD IN A CLOSED DAIRY-HERD

The spread of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in a closed dairy he rd maintained under typical management conditions is studied using two approaches. In the first instance a stochastic computer model is used to simulate the month-to-month changes in the infection status of eac h animal. These results are contrasted with the results of a mass-acti on model which uses three differential equations. A comparison of the two approaches indicates that the results are in broad agreement. The stochastic approach has the benefit of providing an estimate of the pr obability of the infection becoming extinct and the herd becoming BVDV -free for different herd sizes. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.