The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impactof interventions

We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Gr eat Britain over the first 2 months of the spread of the virus. The net tra nsmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control me asures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a,mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and a fter the imposition of movement restrictions. The model is used to make pre dictions of future incidence and to simulate the impact of additional contr ol strategies. Hastening the slaughter of animals with suspected infection is predicted to slow the epidemic, but more drastic action, such as "ring" culling or vaccination around;infection foci, is necessary for more rapid c ontrol. Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination.