A stochastic approach to the flood control problem

We propose a stochastic model in conjunction with reliability analysis conc epts to improve estimates for the protection volume that should be allocate d in a reservoir to control a flood wave. In this approach, the inflow that reaches the reservoir during a flood is considered to be a load, and the r eservoir capacity to control this flood is considered to be the resistance that the reservoir offers against the propagation of the flood. Here, the l oad and the resistance are modeled as a diffusion stochastic process, and t he protection volume is determined via It (o) over cap 's formula. In this scenario, an explicit formula for the failure risk is derived. The paramete r inference is carried out by a Bayesian approach for a time discrete versi on of the load, and the estimates are obtained by using Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithms (MCMC). The maximum likelihood estimators are used in the comparison. The record utilized comprises nine years of daily inflow rates during hood periods that come to the Chavantes hydroelectric power plant (C HPP) in Southeast Brazil. The protection volumes estimated through the prop osed model are compared to the volumes obtained by other existing methods. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.