Sexual reconviction for sexual offenders discharged from prison in Englandand Wales - Implications for evaluating treatment

The sexual reconviction rate for sexual offenders discharged from prison ha s declined and both two and four year post-release rates are low. Levels of sexual offending are not falling per se as the number of reported sexual o ffences has risen yearly, but against this rise, the number of convictions/ cautions for sexual offences is falling. The probability of a reported sexu al offence leading to a conviction has been halved and this is cause for co ncern. The theoretical implications of the low base rate of sexual reconvic tion for sexual offenders discharged from prison are discussed in relation to the evaluation of treatment programmes for sexual offenders in custody. New outcome measures are proposed to supplement sexual reconviction data an d the reliability of these measures are discussed.