Uncertainty and forecasting local health professional shortages

We used a utilization-based scenario-forecasting model to assess the eviden ce for current and future imbalances between health professional supply and demand in Memphis-Shelby County, Tennessee. The scenario-forecasting model , based on qualitative information collected from local health industry lea ders, was shaped and limited by the types of current local area data availa ble. This paper discusses methods that may prove useful to applied demograp hers making forecasts, given uncertain system change and poor data.