Advances in probabilistic design: manufacturing knowledge and applications

Product Lifetime prediction, cost and weight optimization have enormous imp lications for the business of engineering manufacture. Deterministic design fails to provide the necessary understanding: of the nature of manufacture , material properties, in-service loading and their variation. Probabilisti c approaches offer much potential in this connection, but have yet to be ta ken up widely by manufacturing industry. This paper reports on advances in probabilistic design made possible through new progress in manufacturing en gineering. Methods for predicting process capability indices for given desi gn geometry, material and processing route? and for estimating material pro perty and loading stress variation, are developed to augment probabilistic design formulations. The techniques are used in conjunction with failure mo de and effects analysis (FMEA) to facilitate the setting of reliability tar gets for design schemes. A case study is included to illustrate the applica tion of the methods and the benefits that can accrue from their usage.