D. Card et T. Lemieux, Can falling supply explain the rising return to college for younger men? Acohort-based analysis, Q J ECON, 116(2), 2001, pp. 705-746
Although the college-high school wage gap for younger U. S. men has doubled
over the past 30 years, the gap for older men has remained nearly constant
. In the United Kingdom and Canada the college-high school wage gap also in
creased for younger relative to older men. Using a model with imperfect sub
stitution between similarly educated workers in different age groups, we ar
gue that these shifts reflect changes in the relative supply of highly educ
ated workers across age groups. The driving force behind these changes is t
he slowdown in the rate of growth of educational attainment that began with
cohorts born in the early 1950s in all three countries.