Family-level continuities in childbearing in low-fertility societies

A number of studies of populations in earlier generations have shown that f ertility patterns of parents and children are positively correlated, althou gh the relationship is frequently designated as 'weak'. Models that may be used to investigate the ways in which patterns of demographic behaviour per sist between generations are considered. The principal frameworks used are fitting of simulation and multi-level models. The data sources utilised are the 1986 ISSP co-ordinated series of surveys on social networks, the count ry files for Italy, Norway and Poland from the UNECE co-ordinated FFS progr amme, and the US National Survey of Families and Households which contains particularly rich information on the experience of demographic events acros s different generations. We find that the relationship between fertility of successive generations is becoming stronger with time, and that it is now of a comparable order of magnitude to widely-used conventional covariates s uch as educational level. This intergenerational relationship cannot be exp lained by differential fertility across socio-economic groups. Reasons why the strength of the relationship has been understated and the implications of results from such analyses are discussed.