We project the future racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. physic
ian workforce under different assumptions. Our projections show that r
eaching racial and ethnic population parity with a managed care-based
requirement of 218 physicians per 100,000 population would require the
number of first-year residents to roughly double for Hispanic and bla
ck physicians, triple for Native American physicians, and be reduced b
y about two-fifths for white physicians and two-thirds for physicians
of Asian or Pacific Island origin.