Precipitation forecast skill of different convective parameterization and microphysical schemes: application for the cold season over Greece

Since March 2000, the MM5 model is running operationally at the National Ob servatory of Athens. For the definition of the model setup, namely the sele ction of the convective e parameterization and the microphysical schemes, s ensitivity of meso-p-scale simulations to different schemes has been invest igated. This work focuses on the detailed comparison of MMS simulations of eight precipitation events that occurred over the Greece during the cold pe riod 1999-2000. Model results are compared against observations using stati stical methods, in order to assess the agreement of predicted with observed precipitation amounts, the agreement of the areal coverage of precipitatio n and the correct placement of maxima and minima. Although all combinations showed a considerable forecast skill, the combination of the KainFritsch c onvective parameterization scheme with the Shultz microphysical scheme demo nstrated the bout forecast skill and the more consistent behaviour.