Are certain life histories particularly prone to local extinction?

Using stochastic simulations and elasticity analysis, we show that there ar e inherent differences in the risk of extinction between life histories wit h different demographies. Which life history is the most vulnerable depends on which vital rate varies. When juvenile survival varies semelparous orga nisms with delayed reproduction are the most vulnerable ones, while a varyi ng developmental rate puts a greater threat to semelparous organisms with r apid development. Iteroparous organisms are the most vulnerable ones when a dult survival varies. Generally, we do not expect to observe organisms in n ature having variation in vital rates that produce a high risk of extinctio n. Given the results here we therefore predict that iteroparous organisms s hould show low variation in adult survival. Moreover, we predict that semel parous organisms should show low variation in juvenile survival and low var iation in developmental rate. The effect of temporal correlation on extinct ion risk is most pronounced in organisms with semelparous life histories. ( C) 2001 Academic Press.