A systems approach for the estimation of the effects of land consolidationprojects (LCPs): a model and its application

Land consolidation projects (LCPs) are costly rural development actions tha t are often questioned. Integrated LCPs are geographically confined Land Ru ral Development Actions and their ex ante evaluation involves interdiscipli nary research, in order to predict changes in farmers behaviour, patterns o f land use and in crops and technologies used. A model that incorporates me thods for the evaluation of the performance of the agricultural system befo re and after the transformations proposed in the project is presented. It i s argued that the systems approach is the appropriate method to integrate e ach particular change and evaluate the global impact of every action includ ed in the project. The model was applied to the Valenca-LCP in 1989, before project execution (Coelho, 1992 Analise de Projectos de Emparcelamento Rur al. O case de Valenca do Minho. PhD thesis, UTL, ISA, Lisboa.). It evaluate s each effect of the project (land, irrigation and drainage and road recons truction) on a technical and social basis and estimates its economic impact s. The observed results used to evaluate model performance were obtained in 1995, after project implementation. The results from the comparison of mod el predictions (ex ante evaluation) with observations after LCP implementat ion (ex post evaluation) suggest that a multidisciplinary approach such as the one proposed here, supported by robust models, can be used as a reliabl e basis for the evaluation and decisionmaking process of LCPs. (C) 2001 Els evier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.