Jc. Coelho et al., A systems approach for the estimation of the effects of land consolidationprojects (LCPs): a model and its application, AGR SYST, 68(3), 2001, pp. 179-195
Land consolidation projects (LCPs) are costly rural development actions tha
t are often questioned. Integrated LCPs are geographically confined Land Ru
ral Development Actions and their ex ante evaluation involves interdiscipli
nary research, in order to predict changes in farmers behaviour, patterns o
f land use and in crops and technologies used. A model that incorporates me
thods for the evaluation of the performance of the agricultural system befo
re and after the transformations proposed in the project is presented. It i
s argued that the systems approach is the appropriate method to integrate e
ach particular change and evaluate the global impact of every action includ
ed in the project. The model was applied to the Valenca-LCP in 1989, before
project execution (Coelho, 1992 Analise de Projectos de Emparcelamento Rur
al. O case de Valenca do Minho. PhD thesis, UTL, ISA, Lisboa.). It evaluate
s each effect of the project (land, irrigation and drainage and road recons
truction) on a technical and social basis and estimates its economic impact
s. The observed results used to evaluate model performance were obtained in
1995, after project implementation. The results from the comparison of mod
el predictions (ex ante evaluation) with observations after LCP implementat
ion (ex post evaluation) suggest that a multidisciplinary approach such as
the one proposed here, supported by robust models, can be used as a reliabl
e basis for the evaluation and decisionmaking process of LCPs. (C) 2001 Els
evier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.