The promotion paradox: Organizational mortality and employee promotion chances in Silicon Valley law firms, 1946-1996

This article argues that there is a "promotion paradox" - a negative relati on between firm life chances and employee promotion chances. I argue that t his is due to a firm's bargaining power, which increases with the firm's co mpetitive strength. I find strong support using data on 50 years of Silicon Valley law firms and attorneys. Young, small, specialist, and low-status f irms are more likely to fail but are also contexts with the highest promoti on likelihood. Moreover, except for those firms that are "near death," an a ssociate's promotion likelihood increases with the law firm's probability o f failure.