Strong societies, weak parties: Regime change in Cuba and Venezuela in the1950s and today

The literature on the origins of democratic institutions is split between b ottom-up and top-down approaches, The former emphasize societal factors tha t press for democracy; the latter, rules and institutions that shape elites ' incentives. Can these approaches be reconciled? This article proposes com petitive political parties, more so than degrees of modernization and assoc iationalism, as the link between the two. Competitive political parties enh ance society's bargaining power with the state and show dominant elites tha t liberalization is in their best interest; the parties are thus effective conduits of democracy. In the context of party deficit, the prospects for d emocratization or redemocratization are slim. This is illustrated by compar ing Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and 1990s.