Issues of intervention aimed at preventing prospective surplus of physicians in Japan

Objectives In Japan, regulatory intervention aimed at preventing a prospect ive surplus of physicians is an important medical issue. The study committe es organized by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MHW) in 1986, 1993 and 1998, concluded that the number of physicians would exceed demand for their services in the future. As a result, the government planned to reduce the number of medical students. However, MHW has not been successful in the int ervention so far, as shown by the fact that their initial plan for a 10% re duction in the number of students enrolled in medical school has not been a ttained. In this paper, we examine why the MHW policy failed. Methods We reviewed those forecasts performed by past MHW study committees and examined whether the government policy of controlling physician trainin g was appropriate. Additionally, we did a preliminary projection of special ty-specific demand for physician services as a reference for future physici an manpower policies in Japan. Results We found that both conflicts among various interest groups and a la ck of precise projections of physician services hampered the proper formati on and implementation of a physician manpower policy in Japan. Conclusions It might be necessary to examine the appropriateness of the MHW policy in reducing the overall number of students enrolled in medical scho ols. As a first step in formulating and implementing a physician manpower p olicy, we should begin to consolidate the necessary data to conduct precise and proper projections of future physician demand.