Jk. Wang, Generation of predictive price and trading volume patterns in a model of dynamically evolving free market supply and demand, DISCR D N S, 6(1), 2001, pp. 37-47
I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects
of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and s
hare demand as a Function of price deviation from moving averages. Price ch
arts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequ
ency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known
in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional
predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolvi
ng supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with
the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by
a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with depe
ndence on price history.