Clear and present strangers: The clash of civilizations and international conflict

Huntington's (1993a, 1993b, 1996) clash of civilizations thesis suggests th at states belonging to different civilizations are more likely to become in volved in conflict with one another. To evaluate the empirical accuracy of Huntington's claims, we examined the relationship between civilization memb ership and interstate M;ar between 1816 and 1992. We find that civilization membership was not significantly associated with the onset of interstate w ar during the Cold War era (1946-1988), which is consistent with one aspect of Huntington's thesis; however, we also find that for the pre-Cold War pe riod (1816-1945) states of similar civilizations were more likely to Eight each other than were those of different civilizations, which contradicts Hu ntington's thesis. Most importantly, our analysis reveals that during the p ost-Cold War era (1989-1992), the period in which Huntington contends that the clash of civilizations should he most apparent, civilization membership was not significantly associated with the probability of interstate war. A ll told, our findings challenge Huntington's claims and seriously undermine the policy recommendations that devolve from his clash of civilizations th esis.