An analysis of the feasibility of long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia using El Nino-Southern Oscillation indicators

This paper investigates the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillati on (ENSO) events and the discharge of Colombian rivers and analyzes the pos sibility of using this relationship to forecast streamflows. Systematic cro ss-correlations are performed in the exploratory analysis to determine the lag time between ENSO and its effects on Colombian streamflows and the ENSO indicators with the strongest relationship with Colombian streamflows. Sev eral streamflow periods, ENSO indicators, periods for each ENSO indicator, and lag times are considered. The authors demonstrate that long-range strea mflow forecasting for Colombia based on ENSO indicators is possible, and th at the best ENSO indicators for predicting streamflows in Colombia are the MEI, the SOI, and the Nino 4 sea surface temperature anomalies. (C) 2001 El sevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.