The effect of welfare payments on the marriage and fertility behavior of unwed mothers: Results from a twins experiment

We study the relationship between welfare benefits and the time to first ma rriage and time to next birth among initially unwed mothers. We use twin bi rths to generate random within-state variation in benefits, effectively con trolling for unobservables that may confound the relationship between welfa re payments and behavior. Higher base welfare benefits (1) lead unwed white mothers to forestall their eventual marriage and (2) lead unwed black moth ers to hasten their next birth. The magnitudes of these effects are fairly modest. Moreover, we find no evidence that the marginal benefit paid at the birth of an additional child-the focus of the family cap debate-affects fe rtility.