Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States blackand nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999

Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in d isability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evide nce is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will continue. This paper reports results from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey on disability trends from 1982 through 1999 . It is found that disability continued to decline in the 1994 to 1999 peri od, and that the decline was greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s, The di sability decline from 1982 to 1989 was 0.26% per year, from 1989 to 1994 it was 0.38% per year, and from 1994 to 1999 it was 0.56% per year. In additi on, disability declined by a greater percentage for blacks than for nonblac ks over the 1989 to 1999 period.