Adaptation to climate variability and change in the US Great Plains: A multi-scale analysis of Ricardian climate sensitivities

The Ricardian approach to estimating climate change impacts is an important technique for incorporating how adaptations modulate the overall effect. P ast Ricardian work expresses climate sensitivities in terms of local effect s only, ignoring the influence on adaptation of broader-scale social, envir onmental and economic factors. This paper extends the Ricardian approach to account for influences at multiple spatial scales. Results from multi-leve l modeling support the hypothesis that a county's Ricardian climate sensiti vity is influenced not only by its climate but also by social factors assoc iated with the climate of the agro-climatic zone in which it is located. Th e model estimates a non-linear, hill-shaped relationship between July maxim um temperatures and agricultural land values, with initial increases benefi cial in all counties but more beneficial in districts of high interannual t emperature variability. Farmers and institutions in districts of high varia bility have therefore adapted to be more resilient to variability than farm ers in areas of comparatively stable climate. However, the underlying reaso ns for this lessened vulnerability are unclear and may be associated with u nsustainable land-use practices. Future research should investigate the pre cise form of these local and extra-local adaptations to determine if implem enting the adaptations elsewhere would compromise agricultural system susta inability. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.