Model based analysis of future land-use development in China

The recognition that land-use changes are directly linked with economic dec isions has led the land use change (LUC) project at the International Insti tute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) to adopt an economic framework as the organizing principle of its modeling efforts. This paper discusses thr ee complementary approaches used for analyzing and projecting regional land use in China. First, an enhanced agro-ecological zones (AEZ) assessment mo del provides a spatially explicit measure of production potentials for agri cultural land uses. Next, land-use change scenarios are assessed with an ex tended input-output model of China's economy. Finally, we indicate how land -use policy alternatives can adequately be analyzed in a multi-region econo mic framework using optimization when an AEZ-based representation of climat e and biophysical conditions is incorporated in the model specification. Th e analysis makes a strong appeal for sustaining efforts that can furnish ra pid technological progress in land-based sectors, and it suggests that an i ncrease of grain imports to about 10-15% of China's current total grain out put would greatly reduce the pressure on cropland and water resources, espe cially in the northern half of the country. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.