The majority of the large number of existing land use models lack a proper
validation, often because of data problems. Moreover, despite recognition o
f the necessity to incorporate a multi-scale analysis, scale dependencies a
re normally not considered during validation. In this paper, a multi-scale
land use change modelling framework, conversion of land use and its effects
(CLUE), is calibrated for Costa Rica and validated at five spatial resolut
ions for Honduras and Costa Rica. Both countries experienced locally very s
trong actual land use changes. Calibration runs show that the model is very
sensitive to changes in the autonomous development parameter, which define
s the influence of the finest resolution. Validation results are very satis
factory for both countries. Especially, changes in major land use types are
reproduced with the model. Changes in localised land use types are more di
fficult to project. The magnitude of gains and magnitude of losses are slig
htly underestimated in all cases. The multi-scale validation demonstrates t
hat results improve strongly, and exponentially, with decreasing spatial re
solution. Strong reduction of the number of observations results in a corre
lation between actual and modelled changes that approximates the perfect va
lue of 1. The study demonstrates that the CLUE modelling framework can repr
oduce changes as they took place in Central America in the 1970s and 1980s,
and shows how conclusions can differ depending on the scale at which valid
ation is performed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.